8.1 Multi-Agent EPV Notation
Typical actors and their EPV are:
- EPV_C: consumers (Consumer);
- EPV_L: labor (Labor);
- EPV_M: firms / capital (Market / Firm);
- EPV_G: government (Government);
- EPV_Low: low-status / vulnerable groups (Low-status).
CBT asks how the EPV of these actors co-evolves under the same institutional structure and Bus network:
- Who is paying for whom?
- Who bears hidden costs?
- Whose EPV is systematically compressed or even liquidated?
- Which actors contribute positive FCF to the system, and which actors systematically extract FCF from it?
8.2 Structural Instability Criterion (Simplified)
In qualitative analysis, the following criterion can be used:
If, over the long run:
- ΔEPV_{M+G} > 0 (the EPV of firms and government rises);
- ΔEPV_{L+Low} < 0 (the EPV of labor and vulnerable groups falls);
- and there is no credible legal repair mechanism;
then the system will often also exhibit:
- Δr_u > 0 (the tail-risk premium rises);
- Δr_s > 0 (the social subjective discount rate rises, with more short-termism and cynicism);
- a widening Scissors Gap Δr (the time horizons of decision makers and society become increasingly misaligned).
The system enters a “boundary-rewriting risk zone.”
This criterion is not a precise equation but a structural signal:
- If growth is built on systematically depressing the EPV of labor and vulnerable groups,
- the cost will sooner or later return in the form of a higher r_u and greater systemic risk;
- Any actor that attempts to “optimize only its own EPV” while ignoring other actors will face structural backlash over the long run.